Dec. 7 elections: NDC to win 50.40%, NPP 41.80% -CEDRAI poll

The Centre for Development Research and Agro-Innovation (CEDRAI) has comprehensively analyzed the critical factors shaping Ghana’s 2024 elections. Drawing on insights from a survey of 3,531 respondents across all 16 regions, this report provides a deep dive into the pressing issues that will influence voter decisions.

Presidential
race: NDC’s 8.6% lead over NPP

The NDC’s lead of 50.40% against the NPP of 41.80% reflects significant dissatisfaction among sampled registered voters with the current administration under the NPP. Voter discontent centers on:

Economic Challenges

High inflation, rising cost of living, and limited job opportunities.

Infrastructure and Social Issues: Delays in essential projects and inadequate public services, including healthcare and education. Perceived Corruption Allegations of government inefficiency and corruption have eroded trust in the NPP.

Figure 1: Voting preference for President
The NDC has gained traction by focusing on change and systemic reforms. Addressing voter concerns about improving poor economic performance, reassuring them of tackling corruption, and creating jobs have resonated with voters. However, this lead does not guarantee victory, as the party must maintain a cohesive and inclusive message to secure widespread appeal. For the NPP, recovering from this deficit requires addressing governance failures, presenting detailed economic recovery plans, and reinforcing achievements in infrastructure. Boldly admitting failure to address the galamsey menace and an actionable plan to implement strategies will attract voters’ confidence.

Parliamentary Race: A Tight Contest
Based on sampled constituencies, the parliamentary contest is neck-and-neck, with the NDC at 49% and the NPP at 46%. Swing regions and undecided voters will be decisive. See Figure 9.

Figure 2: Voting preference for Member of Parliament
Survey results on key themes
Illegal Mining (Galamsey): With 99.2% of respondents aware of galamsey and 87.3% indicating its significance in their voting decisions, this issue emerges as an important decisive factor. However, only 12.7% believe the government is effectively addressing it, highlighting a gap that political parties should pay serious attention to tackling with actionable policies.

Planting for Food and Jobs 2.0 (PFJ 2.0): More than 80% of the surveyed voters are dissatisfied with the implementation of PFJ 2.0, with nearly 82% indicating that their dissatisfaction with its implementation would influence their voting choice on December 7.

One Village One Dam (1V1D): 79.5% of respondents recognized 1V1D as important, but it garners mixed satisfaction levels, particularly regarding implementation and regional equity. While the initiative has pockets of success, concerns about its execution underline the need for tailored interventions to build broader public trust.

Political Party Manifestos

Given that many of the respondents are actors in the agribusiness value chain, agricultural policies become critical in their voting behavior, with 87.3% of respondents indicating that these will significantly influence their voting decisions. The NDC currently leads in public perception of agricultural plans, with 40.7% support compared to 38.6% for the NPP, emphasizing the importance of clear and actionable proposals for agricultural development.

Summary of voting

Preferences and Key Factors Influencing Voter Behavior
Ghana’s 2024 elections highlight critical trends in voter preferences that will influence the outcome of the presidential and parliamentary races. Key themes include economic challenges, governance performance, and strategic voter mobilization.

Key factors influencing voter decisions

Beyond party affiliations, specific issues heavily shape voter behavior: respondents were asked multiple choice questions.

Economy (95%)
The economy dominates voter concerns, with inflation, exchange rates, and taxation being pivotal. Political parties must present actionable plans for economic recovery, including reducing inflation, stabilizing the currency, and fostering job creation.

Infrastructure Development (70%)
Improved access to roads, schools, and healthcare remains central to voter expectations.
Highlighting initiatives to address gaps in underserved regions is crucial for voter trust.
Employment Opportunities (70%)
High unemployment, especially among the youth, is a critical concern. Policies targeting agriculture, technology, and manufacturing are likely to attract support.
Education (65%)
Mixed reactions to the Free SHS program underline the need for balancing access with quality reforms.
Focused improvements in tertiary education and reducing overcrowding in schools are key voter priorities.

Corruption (90%)
Governance integrity and anti-corruption measures remain significant.
Parties must outline clear frameworks for accountability and transparency.
Democracy, Peace, and Security (40%)
Stability is valued but ranks lower than economic and social issues in this election cycle.

Strategic implications
for campaigns
Voter Turnout: High turnout is crucial. Campaigns should engage grassroots networks and leverage digital platforms to motivate their bases.
Targeted Messaging: Tailor strategies to resonate with regional and demographic priorities, such as youth-focused employment policies and region-specific development initiatives.
Youth Engagement: Young voters prioritize job creation, education, and technological advancements. Effective use of social media and youth-driven platforms can expand outreach.

Conclusion
The 2024 elections are shaped by public discontent with governance and pressing socio-economic issues. The economy, job creation, corruption, implementation of agricultural and environmental issues, and infrastructure dominate voter priorities, presenting opportunities for parties that align their campaigns with these concerns. The NDC’s current advantage reflects its resonance with voter frustrations, but sustained efforts to connect with swing voters and undecided demographics are necessary for both major parties.

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