Dec. 7 elections: Mahama to win 52.2%,  with majority seats in Parliament, Bawumia 41.4% –Global InfoAnalytics

Global InfoAnalytics has projected a victory for John Dramani Mahama, the presidential candidate of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), in the upcoming December 7 elections. The firm released its latest poll just eight days before the general elections.

The forecast indicates that Mahama will secure 52.2% of the vote, leading Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) candidate and Vice President, who is expected to receive 41.4%.Other candidates are predicted to garner 2.5% for Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen, 3.0% for Nana Kwame Bediako, and 0.9% for various other contenders. The poll carries a margin of error of ±1.8%, with a projected voter turnout of 77.6%.

Regionally, Mahama is expected to win in 10 regions, including Greater Accra, Central, Volta, and Northern regions. Bawumia is predicted to dominate in Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions, among others.

In the parliamentary race, the NDC is projected to secure 150 seats, while the NPP is expected to win 99 seats, with one seat possibly going to an independent candidate. However, 29 constituencies remain too close to call. This projection suggests that the NDC is likely to strengthen its position in its strongholds while challenging the NPP’s dominance in other areas.

The report highlights key factors influencing voter preferences, such as economic concerns, job creation, and public service delivery, as well as the impact of regional strongholds on the overall election outcome.

While this survey represents a base-case scenario, it also includes alternative models. Depending on final voter turnout and the number of undecided voters, Mahama’s support could range between 50.4% and 54.1%.

This latest prediction follows a similar survey conducted on November 21, 2024, by Professor Smart Sarpong, an Associate Professor of Statistics at Kumasi Technical University. That study placed Dr. Bawumia ahead with 49.1% of popular support, while Mahama trailed at 45.8%. Other candidates in that survey included Nana Kwame Bediako, with just over 2%, and Alan Kyerematen, who was forecast to secure 1.2% of the vote.

Global InfoAnalytics 2024 Election Predictions(1)