Fitch Solutions insists NDC will win election 2024

Fitch Solutions has firmly asserted that the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) will win the upcoming general elections in December. This marks the third time the agency has made this strong prediction.

The report notes that the current government is expected to increase spending in the lead-up to the December 2024 elections to improve its chances of winning. “We anticipate the government will raise expenditure ahead of the elections to bolster its prospects for victory. However, we maintain our view that the NDC will emerge victorious,” it stated in its latest Country Report on Ghana, dated September 19, 2024.

The report highlights that in the second quarter of 2024, the government increased public sector wages by 31% year-on-year and tripled subsidies on fuel products. This aligns with Ghana’s historical pattern of heightened spending during election cycles and is expected to enhance household purchasing power and consumer spending in the latter half of 2024. Overall, Fitch forecasts private consumption to grow by 8.5% in 2024, contributing 7.2 percentage points to overall economic growth.

Risks to the outlook

Fitch also noted that the risks to Ghana’s economic growth outlook are skewed to the downside. In September 2024, the NDC organized nationwide protests over alleged irregularities in the voter roll ahead of the elections. While Fitch believes the vote will be conducted peacefully, similar to Ghana’s recent democratic practices, prolonged protests or significant violence could disrupt commercial activities, dampening consumer and business confidence and potentially leading to lower economic growth than currently projected.

Moreover, the agency cautioned that escalating conflicts in the Middle East, resulting in higher global oil prices, could lead to renewed inflation and negatively impact Ghana’s domestic demand outlook.